Forecast of auto parts industry in 2023

Historically, short selling Tesla is often a bad bet, but BNEF's analyst team believes that there may be a new leader in electric vehicle sales worldwide in 2023. In the past two years, BYD has been rapidly expanding its model lineup, global layout and manufacturing capacity. If plug-in hybrid vehicles are included, BYD has surpassed Tesla in 2022, and its sales of pure electric vehicles have soared from 321000 in 2021 to about 911000 last year.

BNEF expects that Tesla's global sales will increase by 30% to 40% in 2023, as the production of Tesla's new plants near Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas continues to increase. However, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly. The rise of interest rates, the fall of house prices and the collapse of the stock market have all begun to seriously affect consumers' purchase decisions. As the competition heats up, a series of actions by Elon Musk to acquire Twitter have also deterred some potential buyers. It is expected that by 2023, Tesla Model Y will still be the world's best-selling electric vehicle, and is likely to rank among the top three best-selling models in the overall car market. Tesla's super charging station network is still a major advantage, especially in North America, where public charging is still underdeveloped. Therefore, the competition between BYD and Tesla will continue until the last moment, and largely depends on the pricing strategy of the vehicle. Tesla has just made a sharp price reduction in the United States and Europe, and has also begun to reduce prices in China, which shows that it is willing to launch a price war to maintain sales growth. Tesla still has room for manoeuvre and may remain ahead for most of this year, but BYD may be able to squeeze out competitors in the last few months of this year. However, both companies will continue to be far ahead of other traditional automakers